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Performance – July 2024

SSI tracking portfolio was up 1.5% in July 2024. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.

Below you will find a more detailed breakdown of tracking portfolio returns by individual names as well as elaborations on names exited during the month.

 

TRACKING PORTFOLIO +1.5% IN JULY

Disclaimer: These are not actual trading results. Tracking Portfolio is only an information tool to indicate the aggregate performance of special situation investments published on this website. See full disclaimer here.

The chart below depicts the returns of SSI Tracking Portfolio since the start of 2017.

Screenshot 2024 08 02 at 13.24.29

 

PERFORMANCE SPLIT JULY 2024

The graph below details the individual MoM performance of all SSI Portfolio ideas that were active during the month of July 2024.

Screenshot 2024 08 02 at 13.24.50

 

PORTFOLIO IDEAS CLOSED IN JULY

Ascential (ASCL.L) – Large Asset Sale & Special Dividend +70% in 9 Months
Ascential operated three distinct businesses: Product Design (subscription-based market research reports), Digital Commerce (e-commerce services and software), and Events. The company announced the sale of the first two segments and a capital return program for over 70% of its market cap once the divestments were completed. RemainCo seemed cheap and the capital return was expected to catalyze re-rating. The thesis was unfolding as anticipated until ASCL surprised us with a takeover offer from a much larger peer at £5.68/share, which was a 53% premium to the unaffected price. Valuation implied in the takeover price seemed quite generous – 17x EBITDA compared to the 6x multiple at which RemainCo was trading when I first covered this idea. The board quickly accepted the deal. The spread was eliminated and the idea resulted in 70% profit in 9 months.

Carnarvon Energy (CVN:AX) -13% in 1 Month
Carnarvon Energy owns a portfolio of minority interests in several oil and gas assets in Australia. The company was trading just slightly above its cash and carry value, with last year’s partial asset monetization highlighting the value of its remaining operating assets. A straightforward sum-of-the-parts valuation suggested a 70% upside, and a group of activists who recently overhauled the board were actively shopping the company. However, CVN’s main asset, the Dorado project, encountered some delays. The final investment decision was pushed back from H2 2024 to 2025 as the project operator needs more time to optimize project economics and reduce upfront CAPEX. Since the monetization of the Dorado project depends on FID progression, this delay means that CVN’s asset sale catalyst got pushed back by around a year. While the project’s underlying value remains intact and the downside is protected by cash and carry value, the extended timeline and increased uncertainty around monetization made the setup less appealing.

 

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