Performance – September 2024

SSI tracking portfolio was down 0.7% in September 2024. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.

Below you will find a more detailed breakdown of tracking portfolio returns by individual names as well as elaborations on names exited during the month.

TRACKING PORTFOLIO: -0.7% IN SEPTEMBER

Disclaimer: These are not actual trading results. Tracking Portfolio is only an information tool to indicate the aggregate performance of special situation investments published on this website. See full disclaimer here.

The chart below depicts the returns of SSI Tracking Portfolio since the start of 2017.

PERFORMANCE SPLIT SEPTEMBER 2024

The graph below details the individual MoM performance of all SSI Portfolio ideas that were active during the month of September 2024.

PORTFOLIO IDEAS CLOSED IN SEPTEMBER

Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT) +4% in 9 Months
Calumet looked like a compelling special situation with several catalysts expected to unfold in 2024. CLMT operates a refinery and specialty chemicals business, but the real highlight is its newly converted, fully operational renewable diesel (RD) facility, which is also producing sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Based on peer multiples and industry transactions, the sum-of-the-parts equity valuation was at $24 to $51/share. The company was trading at a steep discount, but catalysts like the C-corp conversion, securing a low-cost DOE loan for MRL’s expansion into SAF, and potential monetization of MRL were expected to bridge that gap. However, the C-corp conversion failed to significantly impact the share price, delays in the DOE loan process persisted, and MRL’s monetization became less likely due to a substantial downturn in the renewable fuel industry. Eventually, I decided to close my position after reading a well-argued short thesis, which higlighted some serious doubts/concerns around RD and SAF market dynamics, and MRL’s business model. The final tipping point was a DOE document revealing that max-SAF expansion wouldn’t be operational until 2028, instead of the anticipated 2025.

Archive Of Monthly Performance Reports

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