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Performance – June 2025

SSI tracking portfolio was up 3.5% in June 2025. A detailed performance breakdown is provided below.

Below you will find a more detailed breakdown of tracking portfolio returns by individual names as well as elaborations on names exited during the month.

 

TRACKING PORTFOLIO: +3.5% IN JUNE

Disclaimer: These are not actual trading results. Tracking Portfolio is only an information tool to indicate the aggregate performance of special situation investments published on this website. See full disclaimer here.

The chart below depicts the returns of SSI Tracking Portfolio since the start of 2017.

SCR 20250703 ciw

 

PERFORMANCE SPLIT JUNE 2025

The graph below details the individual MoM performance of all SSI Portfolio ideas that were active during the month of June 2025.

SCR 20250703 cib

 

PORTFOLIO IDEAS CLOSED IN JUNE

Wanda Hotel Development (0169:HK) +35% in 1 Month
WHD was selling its hotel management business for more than its entire market cap. Management planned to return “all or material part” of the proceeds to shareholders. After the sale, the company would continue to own a number of valuable real estate assets, some of which was apparently getting shopped as well. I expected WHD’s stock price to re-rate once the hotel management business was sold and the capital return was announced.

The thesis played out even faster than expected. The stock went up after a massive special dividend was announced (although the sale hadn’t been closed yet). At that point, I decided to take a victory lap as the easy money had been made and the stock was close to my price target. The idea generated +35% in 1 month.

Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) +27% in 4 Months
SAGE’s major shareholder and partner Biogen offered $7.22/share to acquire the company. Management rejected the bid as too low but launched a strategic review. After multiple drug development setbacks and with a bid now on the table, continuing as a standalone company seemed unlikely – making a sale to Biogen the most probable outcome. With SAGE’s large net cash position and the strategic importance of its key drug to Biogen, there was ample room for the suitor to raise its offer.

SAGE concluded its strategic review by announcing a sale to Supernus Pharmaceuticals. Shareholders will receive $8.50/share in cash, plus a CVR that could pay up to $3.50/share. The stock jumped above $9/share. Competing bid from Biogen seems unlikely and CVR requires a fair bit of optimism to expect a meaningful payout. So I closed my position with 27% gain over 4 months.

Liquidia (LQDA) +17% in 1.5 Years
Liquidia was a pre-revenue pharma bet based on its newly approved PAH and PH-ILD treatment, Yutrepia. After years of litigation with its main competitor, United Therapeutics, the FDA finally gave Yutrepia the green light. The thesis was simple: Yutrepia’s dry-powder inhaler showed clear patient preference in trials, and with that edge, Liquidia could start chipping away UHTR’s market share. UTHR traded at a $10bn market cap while LQDA sat around $1bn. Once commercialization of Yutrepia commercialization began this summer, that valuation gap seemed unlikely to stay that wide for long.

I exited the position after the thesis was undercut by a new and more serious competitive threat: Insmed’s TPIP, which reported strong Phase 2b results. Unlike Yutrepia, TPIP isn’t just an incremental improvement—it’s being positioned as a potentially transformative treatment. It became much harder to see how LQDA could rerate meaningfully as even a solid sales momentum in the near-term would likely get overshadowed by what now looks like a terminal overhang a few years out.

 

ARCHIVE OF MONTHLY PERFORMANCE REPORTS